Just three days to go now until we enter the polling booths to register our choice. There’s no doubting the scale of that choice. The three main parties have manifestos that are more different from each other on economic policy, on taxes and on spending than they have been since at least 1983.
IFS analysis for the 2019 general election
Labour’s 2019 general election manifesto pledged to “bring rail, mail, water and energy” alongside “the broadband-relevant parts of BT” into public ownership. In this report we set out the scale of this proposed programme of nationalisation and some of the key issues it would raise.
Directors of three of the UK’s most trusted and respected independent bodies talk about what has been promised in this election campaign, what challenges will face the new government (whatever its complexion), and where next for Brexit.
Watch the video playback here >>>
Local government funding is rarely a major battleground in election campaigns. This ‘rule’ appears to be holding in the current campaign, despite evident pressures in areas like adults’ and children’s social care services, following a decade of cuts to councils’ funding.
Relative in-work poverty has been steadily rising since 1994–95, meaning that the incomes of poorer working households have not been keeping up with those of middle-income households.
Boris Johnson has announced that he would raise the threshold for paying National Insurance contributions (NICs) on earnings to £9,500 in the first Budget of a Conservative government. Currently 12% NICs is payable on earnings over £8,632 per year, set to rise with inflation to £8,788 in 2020–21.
The Labour Party plans to increase income tax for individuals with annual taxable incomes over £80,000. This briefing note sets out the background to this proposal.
This Election Briefing Note provides a summary of the current higher education funding system in England and investigates the two big reform packages that are currently on the table going into the 2019 General Election.
With taxation set to be a central policy battleground in this election, the IFS sets out some essential factual background.
The election campaign has only just got going, but already spending promises are coming thick and fast. By the time we get to polling day, still a month away, this could turn out to have been a very expensive election, indeed. Up to £20 billion a year of extra investment spending has been pledged by the Tories, £55 billion by Labour. Find out more >>>
Brexit continues to dominate the headlines - but the UK economy faces many other important challenges. Find out more >>>
The Chancellor and Shadow Chancellor have both outlined the fiscal targets that they would seek to adhere to. Mr Javid has chosen to adopt a forward-looking rolling target aimed at current budget balance. In other words, day-to-day spending could not exceed total revenues. This is very similar in nature to Mr McDonnell’s longstanding current budget target.
Whether the UK leaves the European Union, and if so on what terms, is a crucial issue and therefore rightly should be the subject of much debate in the run-up to the general election on 12 December. But Brexit is not the only economically important decision that the UK faces. So the general election debate should not be only about Brexit.
Election 2019
- timeline -
NOV 19
DEC 19
Don’t expect those carefully costed manifesto promises to become reality
Just three days to go now until we enter the polling booths to register our choice. There’s no doubting the scale of that choice. The three main parties have manifestos that are more different from each other on economic policy, on taxes and on spending than they have been since at least 1983.
Universal free school meals are back on the table
In their manifestos, both the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats have promised to extend free school meals to more children. The Labour party would introduce free school meals for all children in primary schools, while the Liberal Democrats would offer them to all secondary-school pupils whose families are receiving universal credit as well. Meanwhile, in their manifesto the Conservative party promises to “maintain our commitment” to free school meals – which we interpret as a plan to keep policy as it is.
Tax in the manifestos
The three main political parties offer voters widely different choices on tax.
Going further on further education?
What are the main parties’ spending proposals for young people in further education and sixth forms, and for adult education? To what extent will they reverse the cuts we’ve seen to date?
The SNP’s manifesto reflects its renewed focus on a future outside the United Kingdom
The SNP’s general election manifesto is not short of policy proposals. The most commented upon is additional money for the English NHS – around £4 billion more than Labour and £7 billion more than the Conservatives by 2023-24 – which could mean several hundred million pounds extra for the Scottish Government’s budget via the Barnett Formula.
The distributional impact of personal tax and benefit reforms, 2010 to 2019
The tax and benefit system has undergone significant reform since 2010, with large cuts to working-age benefits, a rise in the main rate of VAT, increases in the rate of the state pension, and reductions in direct tax, including a big rise in the income tax personal allowance. In this briefing note we investigate the impact that these reforms have had on household incomes.
Labour’s nationalisation policy
Labour’s 2019 general election manifesto pledged to “bring rail, mail, water and energy” alongside “the broadband-relevant parts of BT” into public ownership. In this report we set out the scale of this proposed programme of nationalisation and some of the key issues it would raise.
Separating fact from fiction - livestream
The directors of three of the UK’s most trusted and respected independent bodies will talk about what has been promised in this election campaign, what challenges will face the new government (whatever its complexion), and where next for Brexit.
What do the election manifestos mean for local government funding?
Local government funding is rarely a major battleground in election campaigns. This observation looks at the plans for English local government funding set out in the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat manifestos – which differ vastly.
Seven charts on the £73,000 cost of educating a child
The amount spent on schools is a major topic in this year's election campaign. So, where does all the money for educating the country's children go?
The voters will still pay, whoever gets into No 10
It’s hard to imagine a bigger contrast between the Labour and Conservative manifestos . Where Labour was promising vast tax and spending hikes, the Conservatives are promising virtually nothing.
Conservative manifesto: an initial reaction from IFS researchers
We outline an initial response from IFS researchers on the Conservative Party manifesto. We take policy areas by turn but this is not a full assessment.
Further analysis, including costings and a comparison with other manifestos, will be published next week.
Reducing in-work poverty: the role of minimum wages and benefits
Relative in-work poverty has been steadily rising since 1994–95, meaning that the incomes of poorer working households have not been keeping up with those of middle-income households.
Recent trends in independent sector provision of NHS-funded elective hospital care in England
This briefing note sets out recent trends in the provision of NHS-funded hospital care by private providers – commonly referred to as independent sector providers (ISPs) – in England.
Labour manifesto: an initial reaction from IFS researchers
In this observation we outline an initial
response from IFS researchers on the Labour
manifesto. We take policy areas by turn but this
is not a full assessment.
Conservatives’ proposed NICs cut would cost at least £2.4 billion a year and mostly benefit middle- and higher-income households
Boris Johnson has announced that he would raise the threshold for paying National Insurance contributions (NICs) in the first Budget of a Conservative government. This observation examines the effect of raising the NICs threshold to £9,500, assuming it is implemented in April 2020.
Liberal Democrat Manifesto: an initial reaction from IFS
In this briefing note we outline an initial response from IFS researchers on the Liberal Democrat manifesto.
Labour’s proposed income tax rises for high-income individuals
The Labour Party plans to increase income tax for individuals with annual taxable incomes over £80,000. This briefing note sets out the background to this proposal.
The Liberal Democrats’ plan for childcare would mean a big expansion in the welfare state
The Liberal Democrats’ manifesto, published today, puts childcare front and centre. This observation sets out some background.
Higher Education Funding: more change to come?
This Election Briefing Note provides a summary of the current higher education funding system in England and investigates the two big reform packages that are currently on the table going into the 2019 General Election.
Public sector pay and employment: where are we now?
Employing public sector workers to help deliver public services is a major part of what government does. The number of workers employed by the government and how much they are paid matters not just for those individuals and their families, but also for the public finances and for the public services those employees help provide.
Proposals for the early years in England
Support for childcare and the early years is shaping up to be a major issue in this election campaign. In this briefing note, we analyse the early years packages from the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats.
Cancelling further cut to corporation tax rate leaves revenue the same as before the 2008 crisis
Boris Johnson has today announced that a Conservative government would not go ahead with the planned reduction in the rate of corporation tax from 19% to 17% next April.
Benefit changes set to take effect during the next parliament
While the benefit system has undergone substantial reform over the past 10 years, there remain significant changes due to take place over the next parliament. The highest stakes relate to the continued roll-out of universal credit (UC), which integrates six existing benefits into one payment.
Tax and spending since the crisis: is austerity over?
In this briefing note, we provide an overview of what has happened to the tax system, public service spending and the social security system since the 2008 crisis, highlighting where (and when) the spending cuts have fallen, and consider the long-term outlook for the make-up of public expenditure.
The future path of minimum wages
Minimum wages can play an important role in raising living standards, and have become an important part of a government’s toolkit in addressing low pay. In the forthcoming election, both main parties have commited to increasing the level of the minimum wage.
A decade of cross-party increases in the state pension age
This briefing note describes the state pension age increases that have been legislated by various governments in recent decades, and discusses how they relate to improvements in life expectancies and how spending on state pensions is projected to evolve as a result.
How high are our taxes, and where does the money come from?
With taxation set to be a central policy battleground in this election, the IFS sets out some essential factual background.
Labour’s NHS spending plans
The Labour party has announced their commitments for NHS spending over the next four years if they were to win the 2019 general election. These plans imply day-to-day NHS spending in England that is more generous than current government plans.
English local government funding: trends and challenges in 2019 and beyond
The 2010s have been a decade of major financial change for English local government. Not only have funding levels and hence what councils can spend on local services – fallen significantly; major reforms to the funding system have seen an increasing emphasis on using funding to provide financial incentives for development via initiatives such as the Business Rates Retention Scheme (BRRS) and the New Homes Bonus (NHB).
It’s not a question of splashing the cash so much as what lies behind it
The election campaign has only just got going, but already spending promises are coming thick and fast. By the time we get to polling day, still a month away, this could turn out to have been a very expensive election, indeed. Up to £20 billion a year of extra investment spending has been pledged by the Tories, £55 billion by Labour.
Let’s talk about six big economic challenges that need addressing
Whether the UK leaves the European Union, and if so on what terms, is a crucial issue and therefore rightly should be the subject of much debate in the run-up to the general election on 12 December. But Brexit is not the only economically important decision that the UK faces. So the general election debate should not be only about Brexit.
General election 2019: What are the challenges for the UK's economy?
Brexit continues to dominate the headlines - but the UK economy faces many other important challenges.
Conservatives and Labour happy to borrow to invest, but their commitments to run a surplus on the current budget leaves little room for further net giveaways
The Chancellor and Shadow Chancellor have both outlined the fiscal targets that they would seek to adhere to. Mr Javid has chosen to adopt a forward-looking rolling target aimed at current budget balance. In other words, day-to-day spending could not exceed total revenues. This is very similar in nature to Mr McDonnell’s longstanding current budget target.
Early education and childcare spending
Early education and childcare has also become an increasingly important part of the education spending landscape. Between 2009–10 and 2018–19, annual spending on free childcare for 3- and 4-year-olds rose by almost £1,900 per child (in today’s prices) and we spent £3.3 billion last year on providing these free places.
UK health spending
Funding the National Health Service is the biggest single thing the government does, so it is not surprising that it is at the forefront of the election campaign.
Budget or no budget, with borrowing now on the rise again fiscal realities can’t just be wished away
Today was the intended date of Sajid Javid’s first Budget as Chancellor. The failure to implement a Brexit deal, and the general election campaign, means that the Budget has been delayed.
